After hovering in the mid-1,300s for a while, the exchange rate has dropped a lot recently.
This reflects the expectation that the global economy will not be as bad as expected in the second half of this year, and there are many predictions that it will go down further.
Reporter Kim Jisun reports.
Just when you thought it was creeping up, the won-dollar exchange rate hit a new low on the 2nd of last month.
It fell sharply after the U.S. debt limit deal was reached and expectations of a U.S. benchmark interest rate hike grew토토사이트.
It has fallen by more than 50 won in a month.
[Seok Byung-hoon / Professor of Economics, Ewha Womans University: The expectation that the U.S. is close to the final interest rate level is spreading across the market, so the dollar won’t continue to strengthen anymore].
Experts are predicting that the exchange rate will fall further in the second half of this year.
Their analysis is that the won will be supported by the end of monetary tightening and expectations of a recovery in semiconductor exports.
[Lee Yoo-jung / Hana Bank Researcher: Even if it’s not a big recovery, it’s expected to be enough to instill positive expectations in the market, so it’s expected to be around 1,280 won in the third quarter and around 1,250 won in the fourth quarter].
However, even if the U.S. leaves rates unchanged this week, there is still a chance that it will play the hike card next month.
Even though there are no capital outflows due to the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Korea yet, if it widens to 2 percentage points, the dollar could appreciate and the exchange rate could rise again.
[Hong Kyung-sik / Director of Monetary Policy at the Bank of Korea: amid the current account deficit flow, further interest rate hikes by the US Fed or an early shift in domestic monetary policy could renew upward pressure on the exchange rate].
Despite the optimistic outlook, the Bank of Korea worried that the timing of a recovery in the semiconductor industry is uncertain given the recent high interest rates that have dampened consumption and high inventory levels.
The implication is that the won’s inability to cope with a weaker dollar could continue into the second half of the year.